Monday, February 1, 2010

Looking at where the race is after the money reports are in.

Clearly the race will be settling down a little after all of the reports are in today.  Some thoughts after looking at those reports and a some other indicators.

First amounts of money on hand, how many donors, how much other than self funding facebook support and for some the lack of any in serious numbers.

McKelvey without doubt has the largest amount of money on hand.  He has the smallest number of donors, with only one besides himself.  He has paid consultants very well and now has a campaign manager in the field.  His money comes from a 500K loan against his properties and is not committed for the long run yet. He has about 100 friends on his Facebook page.  He has not really been outside of Franklin County very often so far and his recent fundraiser there recently was not a big event.  Time will tell.

Hurt has the second largest amount of money on hand and a very large and diverse donor base from many parts of the district.  His money is somewhat more impressive because it is so widely spread and shows promise for further fundraising now that Cuccinelli has given him the OK to raise during the session. He even has more donors in the Charlottesville area than McPadden or Verga.  His Facebook page has over 800 friends, by far the most of any candidate and close to more than all his opponents combined. He has a top notch campaign team with LaCivita, Harrison(just won HOD race) and Mayhew who just ran call center for McDonnell in Danville.  His weakness is the TEA party leaders in Lynchburg and Charlottesville dislike of him and being tied down in Richmond for the next month or so.

Verga has the third largest amount of money on hand.  As everyone knows, his campaign is largely self financed, with fewer than twenty donors within the district.  Since McKelvey put his large self donation in,Verga has to play catch up.  His team is weak with a part time inexperienced campaign manager and DC consultants.  They are great at getting articles published but little else.  It seems he made a recent visit to the NRCC, an interesting visit for someone who attacks them regularly.  He has not been able to get any real support but that of Bill Hay whose constant attacks have  weakened the TEA Party in Charlottesville.  He has just over 100 friends on Facebook, really amazing when he paid for Joe the Plumber to help him.  The recent release of his voting record did not help him. He seems to be spinning his wheels in DC rather than in the district.

(Ken Boyd's information has yet to show up on so we will have to go with what is in the Daily Progress)  Boyd has the fourth largest amount of money but just 106 Facebook fans.  His total of less than $50,000 is suprisingly low but his number of donors at 100 is fairly good and puts him in second place in that category. His cash on hand of $20,000 will not allow him to do much this quarter and it will be interesting to see his report and where he has spent his money. He has a very experienced campaign manager and a good size group of local supporters in Albemarle and some down in the Martinsville area also.  His weakness is his past voting record which gets him no support from the TEA party folks anywhere. He comes across well and has gotten better from the stump recently.

Ron Ferrrin is doing well in the Facebook race with almost 175 friends putting him in third place.  He is constrained with no campaign manager but doesn't seem to have made any enemies at all so far.  His financials are unknown at this time. His finance report has also not been posted but we think it will be very low as that has not been where his focus has been.

McPaddens report was about as expected.  He has only five reportable donors other than himself. One is the same fellow who does his website, did the so called straw poll at the TEA party debate and is doing them weekly now. On the plus side, he has an energetic, determined, though unexperienced campaign manager, his second for the campaign.   He seemed to have won the TEA Party debate until the funny stuff about the poll was revealed.  He has over 200 people on his fan page which puts him in second place.  His excuse that his fundraising operation "was not fully established" is an understatement. If he doesn't establish one very soon he will be in real trouble. He seems to be eating at some of Verga's grassroots support.

Morton's financials are sad.  She owes more than she has on hand and although she has had a professional fundraiser on retainer and overpaid for a campaign manager for a couple of months, she just hasn't found support with fewer than twenty reportable donors in the district.  She is now on her fourth campaign manager, a young man with slim experience.  On her Facebook site, she put up a request for more friends but right now has only about 173 now.  Doesn't really look like her grassroots campaign has many roots.

So let's look at some rankings

Net Money on hand- McKelvey,Hurt,Verga,Boyd,Ferrin(guess),Mcpadden,Morton

Money raised from other than self  -Hurt,Boyd,Morton,Verga,McPadden,Ferrin(guess)McKelvey(last five under 15K)

Reportable Donors- Hurt(450+), Boyd(100+), Morton(17),Verga(13),McPadden(5),Ferrin(guess), McKelvey(1)

Facebook Fans- Hurt(802),McPadden(188),Ferrin(174),Morton(173),Boyd(107),Verga(105),McKelvey(104)


  1. its great that Hurt has such a large Facebook presence. and alot of donors.

  2. It's not great that the Washington crowd has bought and paid for Hurt. We don't need to elect Cantor's lapdog to represent the 5th district.

  3. Isn't Robert Hurt's brother in the DC area? isn't that why he has had a fundraiser there? Maybe those people up there think we should have Hurt in Congress rather than Perriello. they are right.

  4. The "Washington Crowd" edible cville refers to isn't conservatives who live in NoVa. It's the power-hungry Eric Cantor's of the world who don't care about principles only gaining/maintaining power. The more D.C. support Hurt gets the less appealing he is.

  5. I would like to offer some additional analysis and correction on Feda Morton....Feda has actually only had two paid campaign managers not four as has been reported. She has two facebooks and the first facebook page ahe has 280 friends second only to Mr. Hurt. She has hired a high-profile consultant of national stature, Kelly Ann Conway and has garnered more high-profile endorsements than anyone in this race. As much as I would have like to seen stronger fundraising numbers last quarter I understand she is on target this quarter and has a number of high profile endorsements and fundraisers coming up in the coming few weeks.

  6. You are trying to spin this but you know better.

    1. Feda had two unpaid mangers who left.

    2. Feda just got to 216 Facebook fans on her campaign page,the same number as McPadden not the 280 you are saying. Her other page has lower numbers. Why would you puff up what is publicly available ? Others are adding friends quicker than Feda.
    3. Feda has had a well known in state fundraiser for months so why does one from out of state whose site says she is pollster make you think she is a fundraiser ? Fundraising on target, does that mean the same thing as your Facebook numbers which you puffed up by 40%. Your credibility is shot.


    See for yourself

  8. 1.FACT I have been involved with this campaign as a member of Feda's committee since DAY1. She has had ONE unpaid campaign consultant/director John Darden. One paid (or as you suggest overpaid campaign manager)Shawn Pattison, and the current campaign manager Aaron Evans who is may be young but is quite capable and doing a great job. Others you have suggested were consultants THATS ALL!

    2. FACT Your numbers on facebook are just flat wrong my wife runs Feda's fan page and as it stands she has 178 fans (oh excuse me I overstated the numbers by 2! what a spin machine!) it is her other page that has lower numbers, if you combine these pages than she comes in second.Most of these people are different folks which gives her stronger numbers.

    3. I never suggested that she hired Kelly Ann Conway for fundraising, she is a pollster and consultant and the well known fundraiser, Mckenzie Smith that you referenced came on ONLY as a fill in, part-time to set up the fundraising operation until she was to go to the NRCC and she is still doing some work for us.

    And I say all of this just to correct the record, we have certainly hit many bumps along the way and as a veteran of over 10 campaigns I understand that even the best run campaigns hit speed bumps.

    I don't have a credibility problem here....I'm not from the McPadden operation!

  9. 1. Wrong Feda sent to an number of people a name of another person as her campaign manager, Mr. Dave Johnson. When you add John Darden, the number rises to four, which happens to be what we said, not the two you were spinning. Your claim, Mr. Shores, is as credible as anything else you say with your past history.

    2. Wrong again. Maybe your wife does run one of your many pages, but the one that you linked to the campaign website is the one that we looked at and most will look at. If you have multiple pages that is confusing at best to supporters and it is interesting that your campaign is the only one to so such a confusing thing. Why if it makes no difference about the number did you have to lie about the number by even one ? You are doing your candidate a disservice.

    3.Since Feda is a fiscal conservative,how do you pay a new consultant when you have debts outstanding ? What sense does it make to hire a pollster ? A poll would cost you more thousands that you clearly don't have.

    4. Your campaign's announcement of McKensie Smith said nothing about part time or fill in. Thanks for making the correction. I am sure we will see a press release about that soon.

    You have a huge credibility gap. Not one of your statements stands up. But with you, what is new ?

  10. 1.Dave Johnson was NEVER the campaign manager, he may have been the contact person for awhile, but NEVER campaign manager. He was a consultant....he will be glad to back that up. Your numbers....still wrong!

    2.Judge what you want about our facebook, but the Facts are what they are...Feda has more facebook supporters than you give her credit for. (just arguing for principle sake anyway, facebook fans are not a barometer of success....good thing nobody pays you for your political analysis!)
    3.Once again your missing something with the new staff hires. Maybe, just maybe she did well with money in January and is paying her consultants and staff and debts with that!? Ya think!
    4. Atleast you conceded something here.

  11. Your numbers, one after another, have never been right.

    You used to be paid for your political knowledge but so many found out how bad that advice was that no one ever does now.

    Maybe there is another Virginians for a Conservative State Senate out there somewhere for you. Didn't you tell people how much you were raising there and how much you were going to give others ? What ever happened with that anyway ?

  12. Thanks for the spirited debate....we just disagree on benchmarks and analysis. Regardless of who you favor or where you come down we can agree that this is definatley one of the most interesting contests to watch. As odd as somethings in this race may be it is actually great in some ways to have so much attention focused on our district. For the record I agree with alot of your postings and concur with your thoughts on a number of issues. Not one to get personal....just passionate.

  13. Chris,
    You just need to answer the question. What ever happened to the money in Virginians for Conservative State Senate ? Until that is answered you have no credibility