Looking at where the race is after the money reports are in.

Clearly the race will be settling down a little after all of the reports are in today.  Some thoughts after looking at those reports and a some other indicators.

First amounts of money on hand, how many donors, how much other than self funding facebook support and for some the lack of any in serious numbers.

McKelvey without doubt has the largest amount of money on hand.  He has the smallest number of donors, with only one besides himself.  He has paid consultants very well and now has a campaign manager in the field.  His money comes from a 500K loan against his properties and is not committed for the long run yet. He has about 100 friends on his Facebook page.  He has not really been outside of Franklin County very often so far and his recent fundraiser there recently was not a big event.  Time will tell.

Hurt has the second largest amount of money on hand and a very large and diverse donor base from many parts of the district.  His money is somewhat more impressive because it is so widely spread and shows promise for further fundraising now that Cuccinelli has given him the OK to raise during the session. He even has more donors in the Charlottesville area than McPadden or Verga.  His Facebook page has over 800 friends, by far the most of any candidate and close to more than all his opponents combined. He has a top notch campaign team with LaCivita, Harrison(just won HOD race) and Mayhew who just ran call center for McDonnell in Danville.  His weakness is the TEA party leaders in Lynchburg and Charlottesville dislike of him and being tied down in Richmond for the next month or so.

Verga has the third largest amount of money on hand.  As everyone knows, his campaign is largely self financed, with fewer than twenty donors within the district.  Since McKelvey put his large self donation in,Verga has to play catch up.  His team is weak with a part time inexperienced campaign manager and DC consultants.  They are great at getting articles published but little else.  It seems he made a recent visit to the NRCC, an interesting visit for someone who attacks them regularly.  He has not been able to get any real support but that of Bill Hay whose constant attacks have  weakened the TEA Party in Charlottesville.  He has just over 100 friends on Facebook, really amazing when he paid for Joe the Plumber to help him.  The recent release of his voting record did not help him. He seems to be spinning his wheels in DC rather than in the district.

(Ken Boyd's information has yet to show up on FEC.gov so we will have to go with what is in the Daily Progress)  Boyd has the fourth largest amount of money but just 106 Facebook fans.  His total of less than $50,000 is suprisingly low but his number of donors at 100 is fairly good and puts him in second place in that category. His cash on hand of $20,000 will not allow him to do much this quarter and it will be interesting to see his report and where he has spent his money. He has a very experienced campaign manager and a good size group of local supporters in Albemarle and some down in the Martinsville area also.  His weakness is his past voting record which gets him no support from the TEA party folks anywhere. He comes across well and has gotten better from the stump recently.

Ron Ferrrin is doing well in the Facebook race with almost 175 friends putting him in third place.  He is constrained with no campaign manager but doesn't seem to have made any enemies at all so far.  His financials are unknown at this time. His finance report has also not been posted but we think it will be very low as that has not been where his focus has been.

McPaddens report was about as expected.  He has only five reportable donors other than himself. One is the same fellow who does his website, did the so called straw poll at the TEA party debate and is doing them weekly now. On the plus side, he has an energetic, determined, though unexperienced campaign manager, his second for the campaign.   He seemed to have won the TEA Party debate until the funny stuff about the poll was revealed.  He has over 200 people on his fan page which puts him in second place.  His excuse that his fundraising operation "was not fully established" is an understatement. If he doesn't establish one very soon he will be in real trouble. He seems to be eating at some of Verga's grassroots support.

Morton's financials are sad.  She owes more than she has on hand and although she has had a professional fundraiser on retainer and overpaid for a campaign manager for a couple of months, she just hasn't found support with fewer than twenty reportable donors in the district.  She is now on her fourth campaign manager, a young man with slim experience.  On her Facebook site, she put up a request for more friends but right now has only about 173 now.  Doesn't really look like her grassroots campaign has many roots.


So let's look at some rankings

Net Money on hand- McKelvey,Hurt,Verga,Boyd,Ferrin(guess),Mcpadden,Morton

Money raised from other than self  -Hurt,Boyd,Morton,Verga,McPadden,Ferrin(guess)McKelvey(last five under 15K)

Reportable Donors- Hurt(450+), Boyd(100+), Morton(17),Verga(13),McPadden(5),Ferrin(guess), McKelvey(1)

Facebook Fans- Hurt(802),McPadden(188),Ferrin(174),Morton(173),Boyd(107),Verga(105),McKelvey(104)