Saturday, February 27, 2010
Bill Hay now officially Verga campaign
After hiding behind a fig leaf for months, Bill Hay will be soon taking an official position with the Verga campaign as the campaign manager we are told. Verga has been supposedly looking for quite some time and has not been able to find an experienced person nor one with knowledge of the district so he has hired Hay. One would hope Hay will quit posting on his Va's Fifth blog as those comments can no longer be excused by Verga as not a part of his campaign. Bill may know Albemarle, Greene and Charlottesville well but in the rest of the district he is both unknown and will need his GPS to find his way around. Rating of Verga's team actually goes down.
Interesting polls
Just thought it was interesting to look at some different online polls.
The number of voters has gone way down in the first poll over the past few weeks and it is not clear that it is being continued as promised.
Virginia's (so called) Fifth District Watchdog (a paid employee of McPadden)
This one is run by the conservative talk radio channel in Charlottesville. Impressive results for Ferrin.
WCHV- Charlottesville
From WSET-Lynchburg
Run by the TV station in Lynchburg- Impressive for Hurt.
The number of voters has gone way down in the first poll over the past few weeks and it is not clear that it is being continued as promised.
Virginia's (so called) Fifth District Watchdog (a paid employee of McPadden)
Week 4: Who is your dog in this race? (Poll Closed)
Total Votes: 99
This one is run by the conservative talk radio channel in Charlottesville. Impressive results for Ferrin.
WCHV- Charlottesville
| Which candidate has your vote as of right now? (1/15/10) |
| Boyd, Kenneth |
 ( 21% ) |
| Ferrin, Ronald |
| ( 30% ) |
| Hurt, Robert |
| ( 6% ) |
| McKelvey, James |
| ( 6% ) |
| McPadden, Michael |
| ( 19% ) |
| Morton, Feda |
| ( 4% ) |
| Verga, Laurence |
| ( 13% ) |
From WSET-Lynchburg
Run by the TV station in Lynchburg- Impressive for Hurt.
If the 5th District Republican primary were held today, who would you most likely vote for?
TEA Party debate in Lynchburg- Good or bad
I won't be able to get down to the debate tonight so I would really like some opinions from those who can. I will be calling some friends who will be there for information but I think the more opinions the better.
I have heard the questions will be done very differently than in Charlottesville and while I have my opinion about how it will work, I think it's best to see how it actually works out. Please let me know what you think of the format as well as who did the best job of answering the questions.
I have heard the questions will be done very differently than in Charlottesville and while I have my opinion about how it will work, I think it's best to see how it actually works out. Please let me know what you think of the format as well as who did the best job of answering the questions.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Really Scary- Just like Tom Perriello
Not sure why I got this hard to believe link today, but if you want to have an idea of what conservative Christians face from the Obama administration now and why we need to get rid of their lapdog, Tom Perriello, please read this article below. Then go to the site of this organization, Common Dreams, to understand the so called "progressive movement". Look and see if this language doesn't sound a lot like Perriello's drivel.
Published on Friday, February 26, 2010 by McClatchy Newspapers
Obama Aides to Meet with Secular Coalition, Atheists on White House Grounds
WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama has burnished his Christian credentials, courted Jewish support and preached outreach toward Muslims. On Friday, his administration will host a group that fits none of the above: America's nonbelievers.
The president isn't expected to make an appearance at the meeting with the Secular Coalition for America or to unveil any new policy as a result of it.
Instead, several administration officials will sit down quietly for a morning meeting at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus with about 60 workhorses from the coalition's 10 member groups, including the American Atheists and the Council for Secular Humanism. Tina Tchen, the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, and representatives from the Justice and Health and Human Services departments will participate.
Coalition leaders are billing their visit as an important meeting between a presidential administration and the "nontheist" community. On the agenda are three policy areas: child medical neglect, military proselytizing and faith-based initiatives.
"We're raising important issues that affect real people's lives," said Sean Faircloth, 49, a former Maine state legislator who's the coalition's executive director.
White House spokesman Shin Inouye downplayed the meeting, saying only that Tchen's office "regularly meets with a wide range of organizations and individuals on a diverse set of issues."
The coalition's board includes such controversy magnets as authors Salman Rushdie ("The Satanic Verses") and Christopher Hitchens ("God Is Not Great"), as well as Michael Newdow, the Sacramento, Calif., doctor who argued against allowing the words "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance before the Supreme Court, but didn't prevail. South Carolina activist Herb Silverman founded the coalition in 2002. It's had a Washington office and a lobbyist since 2005.
"Despite what we hear from Glenn Beck or Sarah Palin, we're in a stage in history where millions upon millions of Americans share a secular perspective on American public policy," Faircloth said. "We think the real 'silent majority,' if you will, is the Americans who say, 'Enough of this religious and even theocratic nature to American policy.' "
The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life found in a 2008 survey before Obama's election that a majority of Americans, 52 percent to 45 percent, think that churches should stay out of politics. That sentiment had changed from three election cycles back, 1996, when 54 percent favored churches expressing political views.
Still, nearly three-fourths of Americans told Pew in December 2009 that they attend religious services each year. Americans also told Pew that month that the Republican Party seems friendlier toward religion than Democrats do, but that Obama seems friendlier toward religion than most Democrats are.
The coalition doesn't embrace all the Obama administration's stances, but members think that they have more of a kindred spirit in the president than in his predecessor, George W. Bush.
Obama once taught constitutional law. His late mother was spiritual but agnostic. His inaugural address is credited as the first by a U.S. president to include explicit recognition of "nonbelievers" as part of the fabric of the nation.
Coalition members plan to use Friday's meeting to advocate closing federal loopholes in the law that governs medical neglect. They say that officials in any state should be able to remove sick children who need medical treatment from homes in which parents believe in faith healing as easily as they could intervene on behalf of other children.
Liz Heywood, of Ithaca, N.Y., said she was 13 when she contracted a bone infection that her Christian Scientist parents wouldn't seek medical attention to treat. She experienced permanent damage, and three years ago, at 45, had the leg amputated above the knee.
Heywood planned to fly to Washington to participate in the coalition meeting until fresh snow left her stuck in New York. She'll participate by speaker phone.
"I fell through the cracks at every turn," Heywood said of her experience as a sick teen in a faith-healing home. "I am hoping I can make a difference with my story."
Other coalition activists have concerns about proselytizing in the military and a rise in the military's evangelical culture. They want the Department of Defense to give protected-class status to nonbelievers, as it does to members of minority religions.
On faith-based initiatives, the coalition differs from the president in opposing taxpayer funding of all faith-based groups. Obama has emphasized that faith-based groups that receive government money for charitable work shouldn't proselytize or discriminate on the basis of religion. Faircloth said the president should formalize that position through an executive order.
The president isn't expected to make an appearance at the meeting with the Secular Coalition for America or to unveil any new policy as a result of it.
Instead, several administration officials will sit down quietly for a morning meeting at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus with about 60 workhorses from the coalition's 10 member groups, including the American Atheists and the Council for Secular Humanism. Tina Tchen, the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, and representatives from the Justice and Health and Human Services departments will participate.
Coalition leaders are billing their visit as an important meeting between a presidential administration and the "nontheist" community. On the agenda are three policy areas: child medical neglect, military proselytizing and faith-based initiatives.
"We're raising important issues that affect real people's lives," said Sean Faircloth, 49, a former Maine state legislator who's the coalition's executive director.
White House spokesman Shin Inouye downplayed the meeting, saying only that Tchen's office "regularly meets with a wide range of organizations and individuals on a diverse set of issues."
The coalition's board includes such controversy magnets as authors Salman Rushdie ("The Satanic Verses") and Christopher Hitchens ("God Is Not Great"), as well as Michael Newdow, the Sacramento, Calif., doctor who argued against allowing the words "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance before the Supreme Court, but didn't prevail. South Carolina activist Herb Silverman founded the coalition in 2002. It's had a Washington office and a lobbyist since 2005.
"Despite what we hear from Glenn Beck or Sarah Palin, we're in a stage in history where millions upon millions of Americans share a secular perspective on American public policy," Faircloth said. "We think the real 'silent majority,' if you will, is the Americans who say, 'Enough of this religious and even theocratic nature to American policy.' "
The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life found in a 2008 survey before Obama's election that a majority of Americans, 52 percent to 45 percent, think that churches should stay out of politics. That sentiment had changed from three election cycles back, 1996, when 54 percent favored churches expressing political views.
Still, nearly three-fourths of Americans told Pew in December 2009 that they attend religious services each year. Americans also told Pew that month that the Republican Party seems friendlier toward religion than Democrats do, but that Obama seems friendlier toward religion than most Democrats are.
The coalition doesn't embrace all the Obama administration's stances, but members think that they have more of a kindred spirit in the president than in his predecessor, George W. Bush.
Obama once taught constitutional law. His late mother was spiritual but agnostic. His inaugural address is credited as the first by a U.S. president to include explicit recognition of "nonbelievers" as part of the fabric of the nation.
Coalition members plan to use Friday's meeting to advocate closing federal loopholes in the law that governs medical neglect. They say that officials in any state should be able to remove sick children who need medical treatment from homes in which parents believe in faith healing as easily as they could intervene on behalf of other children.
Liz Heywood, of Ithaca, N.Y., said she was 13 when she contracted a bone infection that her Christian Scientist parents wouldn't seek medical attention to treat. She experienced permanent damage, and three years ago, at 45, had the leg amputated above the knee.
Heywood planned to fly to Washington to participate in the coalition meeting until fresh snow left her stuck in New York. She'll participate by speaker phone.
"I fell through the cracks at every turn," Heywood said of her experience as a sick teen in a faith-healing home. "I am hoping I can make a difference with my story."
Other coalition activists have concerns about proselytizing in the military and a rise in the military's evangelical culture. They want the Department of Defense to give protected-class status to nonbelievers, as it does to members of minority religions.
On faith-based initiatives, the coalition differs from the president in opposing taxpayer funding of all faith-based groups. Obama has emphasized that faith-based groups that receive government money for charitable work shouldn't proselytize or discriminate on the basis of religion. Faircloth said the president should formalize that position through an executive order.
© 2010 McClatchy Newspapers
5th District Fridays- Interesting comments again
Again today Joe Thomas did a great job of talking to all of the candidates. We listened and had some surprises actually.
Worst comment of the day. Close to a tie so that both need to be looked at but one showed some very bad understanding of how the health care system really works and the other just showed insensibility.
Stupidest comment of the week (2) Feda Morton "Redistribute the two hundred billion dollar tax break for employer based health care." Does she understand that this is given to companies to assist them in paying for the health care of their hard working employees ? Does she want to make it harder than ever for struggling businesses to pay for the health insurance for their employees. Your idea would do nothing but add more people to the list of uninsured. You just lost every voter in the 5th whose company helps them pay for insurance.
Jim McKelvey in his support for one candidate over another for district chair. First he just cost himself the support of everyone who might support the other candidate. Secondly, he wants to tell the grassroots what they should be doing. He wants to rule from the top down.
Don't understand what they will need remarks- McPadden, McKelvey, we won't need the Republican's in the district since we have our own teams. Republican's will have to get together.
If either were to win the primary, that attitude would almost guarantee that the volunteers who have worked for campaign after campaign would shun them.
And Mr. McKelvey, what does your campaign sloganeering have to do with the district chairman ?
Best Comment- Ken Boyd on the new district chair. I know both of the gentlemen............. Continued with good sense afterward.
Worst comment of the day. Close to a tie so that both need to be looked at but one showed some very bad understanding of how the health care system really works and the other just showed insensibility.
Stupidest comment of the week (2) Feda Morton "Redistribute the two hundred billion dollar tax break for employer based health care." Does she understand that this is given to companies to assist them in paying for the health care of their hard working employees ? Does she want to make it harder than ever for struggling businesses to pay for the health insurance for their employees. Your idea would do nothing but add more people to the list of uninsured. You just lost every voter in the 5th whose company helps them pay for insurance.
Jim McKelvey in his support for one candidate over another for district chair. First he just cost himself the support of everyone who might support the other candidate. Secondly, he wants to tell the grassroots what they should be doing. He wants to rule from the top down.
Don't understand what they will need remarks- McPadden, McKelvey, we won't need the Republican's in the district since we have our own teams. Republican's will have to get together.
If either were to win the primary, that attitude would almost guarantee that the volunteers who have worked for campaign after campaign would shun them.
And Mr. McKelvey, what does your campaign sloganeering have to do with the district chairman ?
Best Comment- Ken Boyd on the new district chair. I know both of the gentlemen............. Continued with good sense afterward.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Generic Ballot looking better
As we know, the 5th is a targeted district for the national Democrats this year. We will be seeing more 527 money because of Perriello's close relationship with George Soros and others. The good news is that the generic ballot is turning our way. According to Rasmussen the generic Republican now leads the generic Democrat by nine points. We cannot depend on this to stay this way and lose our focus. We all know that Tom is very slick and will do his best to deny he is a national Democrat. He was playing right out of their playbook issued by the DCCC recently when he started talking about social security. We can expect nothing but more of the same.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Democrats target the 5th
In an email sent to Organizing For America members all over the country, top level Democrats made clear they will come to the help of Tom Perriello often from now to November. Targeting one Senate seat and one House seat they made clear they will support Perriello because he has supported Obama. Those who try to say that Tom is going to be easy to beat are just wrong. The candidates need to stop attacking one another now and start thinking seriously about the fall.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Fifth District Fridays with Joe Thomas
Every Friday, Joe Thomas does interviews with all the candidates.
This week there were some interesting comments from several of the candidates.
Most outrageous claim Lawrence Verga "I am the candidate that the Virginia TEA party is supporting" I would love to hear from the TEA party folks about this but I just don't think they have endorsed. As a matter of fact, I don't think they legally can.
Most out of touch with reality Jim McKelvey "There will be well over 100 new people in the Congress" What has he been smoking ?
Worst reason to win the nomination- tie- Feda Kidd- I have been around for twenty years. If that is the reason, you had better find another. You are telling people you are the establishment person ? Should we put this on the next line instead as an attack on Verga, McKelvey, Ferrin, McPadden and Schultz ?
Lawrence Verga- I have never been an elected official.
Best Attack on another candidate Feda Kidd on Jim McKelvey You can't go sit on other people's desks and yell at them.
Best Comment tie Ken Boyd Pay down the debt. Robert Hurt- Beat Tom Perriello
This week there were some interesting comments from several of the candidates.
Most outrageous claim Lawrence Verga "I am the candidate that the Virginia TEA party is supporting" I would love to hear from the TEA party folks about this but I just don't think they have endorsed. As a matter of fact, I don't think they legally can.
Most out of touch with reality Jim McKelvey "There will be well over 100 new people in the Congress" What has he been smoking ?
Worst reason to win the nomination- tie- Feda Kidd- I have been around for twenty years. If that is the reason, you had better find another. You are telling people you are the establishment person ? Should we put this on the next line instead as an attack on Verga, McKelvey, Ferrin, McPadden and Schultz ?
Lawrence Verga- I have never been an elected official.
Best Attack on another candidate Feda Kidd on Jim McKelvey You can't go sit on other people's desks and yell at them.
Best Comment tie Ken Boyd Pay down the debt. Robert Hurt- Beat Tom Perriello
Friday, February 19, 2010
More McPadden nonsense
Mike McPadden likes to be endorsed and take pledges. Some of the things he signs onto to get those endorsements show a lack of seriousness about governing. He says he is one of "The Freshmen 50" and subscribes to their promises. Here is the platform of this group Freshmen 50 Platform. Look at item #4.
"4. Read the Bill: Prior to final vote, the bill to be voted upon must be read out loud, by one or more of its sponsors, in its entirety, on the floor of the House. Should amendments be required, they must also be read in the same manner. A member may not vote on the bill unless he or she was present for the entire reading, including applicable amendments. "
Now just think about how this would work. Appropriations bills for many of the departments are very lengthy and it would take days to read each of them on the floor. Rather than debate on the parts that need to be debated, the Congress and the Congressmen/Congresswomen would be tied up listening to the entire thing for days on end for each bill. That makes no sense.
This pledge would never be passed. If Mike lives up to his pledge, he will waste his political capital on things that don't make sense, and few other congressmen will pay attention to him when he wants help on those things that will help the 5th.
A candidate should not take any pledge that he knows make no real sense and voters need to avoid candidates who take such pledges. Mike can cure this by publicly distancing himself from this group.
"4. Read the Bill: Prior to final vote, the bill to be voted upon must be read out loud, by one or more of its sponsors, in its entirety, on the floor of the House. Should amendments be required, they must also be read in the same manner. A member may not vote on the bill unless he or she was present for the entire reading, including applicable amendments. "
Now just think about how this would work. Appropriations bills for many of the departments are very lengthy and it would take days to read each of them on the floor. Rather than debate on the parts that need to be debated, the Congress and the Congressmen/Congresswomen would be tied up listening to the entire thing for days on end for each bill. That makes no sense.
This pledge would never be passed. If Mike lives up to his pledge, he will waste his political capital on things that don't make sense, and few other congressmen will pay attention to him when he wants help on those things that will help the 5th.
A candidate should not take any pledge that he knows make no real sense and voters need to avoid candidates who take such pledges. Mike can cure this by publicly distancing himself from this group.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Mike McPadden's nonsense in South Carolina
Mike McPadden keeps talking about "Sound Money" which is something that only a small fringe element believes in. Here is a better explanation of it from a legislator in South Carolina who thinks just like Mike. This is a recipe for making his candidacy a laughingstock. Sadly, this is just one of many of Mike's ideas that just don't make good sense.
We agree that this country needs to stop this policy of Obama and Perriello to mortgage the future of our children and grandchildren but Mike's way is just not a good way.
South Carolina Rep. Mike Pitts has introduced legislation that would mandate that gold and silver coins replace federal currency as legal tender in his state.
As the Palmetto Scoop first reported, Pitts, a Republican, introduced legislation this month banning "the unconstitutional substitution of Federal Reserve Notes for silver and gold coin" in South Carolina.
In an interview, Pitts told Hotsheet that he believes that "if the federal government continues to spend money at the rate it's spending money, and if it continues to print money at the rate it's printing money, our economic system is going to collapse."
"The Germans felt their system wouldn't collapse, but it took a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread in the 1930s," he said. "The Soviet Union didn't think their system would collapse, but it did. Ours is capable of collapsing also."
The lawmaker believes that a shift to an economy based on gold and silver coins would give the state a "base of currency" should that collapse come. As one expert told the Scoop, however, his bill would likely be ruled unconstitutional because it "violates a perfectly legal and Constitutional federal law, enacted pursuant to the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution, that federal reserve notes are legal tender for all debts public and private."
In addition, since gold and silver regularly fluctuate in value, they could not easily function as stable currency.
But Pitts maintains that his state is better off with something he can hold in his hand and barter with as opposed to federal currency, which he described to the Scoop as "paper with ink on it." He says he resents what he considers the federal government's intrusions on states' rights.
Though he did not offer a timeframe, Pitts told Hotsheet that he anticipates a nationwide economic collapse "if our federal government continues the course it's been traveling under the previous administration and this administration."
We agree that this country needs to stop this policy of Obama and Perriello to mortgage the future of our children and grandchildren but Mike's way is just not a good way.
South Carolina Rep. Mike Pitts has introduced legislation that would mandate that gold and silver coins replace federal currency as legal tender in his state.
As the Palmetto Scoop first reported, Pitts, a Republican, introduced legislation this month banning "the unconstitutional substitution of Federal Reserve Notes for silver and gold coin" in South Carolina.
In an interview, Pitts told Hotsheet that he believes that "if the federal government continues to spend money at the rate it's spending money, and if it continues to print money at the rate it's printing money, our economic system is going to collapse."
"The Germans felt their system wouldn't collapse, but it took a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread in the 1930s," he said. "The Soviet Union didn't think their system would collapse, but it did. Ours is capable of collapsing also."
The lawmaker believes that a shift to an economy based on gold and silver coins would give the state a "base of currency" should that collapse come. As one expert told the Scoop, however, his bill would likely be ruled unconstitutional because it "violates a perfectly legal and Constitutional federal law, enacted pursuant to the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution, that federal reserve notes are legal tender for all debts public and private."
In addition, since gold and silver regularly fluctuate in value, they could not easily function as stable currency.
But Pitts maintains that his state is better off with something he can hold in his hand and barter with as opposed to federal currency, which he described to the Scoop as "paper with ink on it." He says he resents what he considers the federal government's intrusions on states' rights.
Though he did not offer a timeframe, Pitts told Hotsheet that he anticipates a nationwide economic collapse "if our federal government continues the course it's been traveling under the previous administration and this administration."
Good analysis of Perriello bill
Over at va5thdistrict.com Bill Hay has done a good job of looking at the recent bill that we are are sure he will be trumpeting as one of his great ideas. As Bill notes it has critical flaws that render it worthless.
2nd in the ACC
Again doing what has become routine, coming back strong to win at the end of a game, my Hokies are now second in the ACC with a Duke matchup on Sunday. I think we are now in the NCAA tourney and a win Sunday could clinch it.
Monday, February 15, 2010
The "Lump Report" may cause more questions than it answers
There is something very fishy about the so called "Lump Report".
First of all we all know that Bill Hay is the spokesperson for everything pro Verga and against all others.
Secondly he was one of the three persons putting together this report and voting on each candidate.
According to the report. (emphasis added)
" Laurence Verga gets a big boost for being actively involved in the TEA Party movement before declaring his run. He has deep support within the movement. He speaks the TEA Party language and has an functional campaign organization. He has raised some money, and has put much of his own up to fund his campaign. It appears he has real potential to carry through and be competitive."
3.5 Lumps
From several sources up here in Albemarle, it appears the first line is not as clear as it might be. I wonder if the voters on this poll other than Hay know that Verga was not around in any way for the first nor subsequent meeting of the JATP and actually only got interested some time after he was exploring running for Congress. How many of his lumps come from those in Lynchburg and Danville who may have been mislead by Hay ?
How many meetings has Verga had with TEA groups other than Hay's ? If one is really reaching out to the TEA groups and is getting big lumps for it, he should have found time in the many months he has been running to go and see them.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Gabe's request
Gabe just asked for speculation here on Valentine's day about what a primary held today would result in. I would really like others to comment first so that my observations don't flavor their ideas. There is huge amount of time left in my opinion. I think momentum does count but that after watching many elections since my first vote in the eighties in the first election I could legally vote in, I know things change rapidly. Issues important today may not be as important in June. If we were to have another attack on our great nation I am sure the vote might be very different. A really bad statement made by a candidate or something similar could lead them to obscurity.
What do you think ? Put your numbers along with your opinion please. Rank em all. If you don't think they will be around on primary day please note that also.
BTW according to the Schilling show, there will be an eighth candidate on Monday !
Another question. Who does another candidate help and hurt ? I have never spoken to this person but will try and get some information this week. No place is more interesting in this country this year than the fifth district of Virginia. Glad I moved here.
What do you think ? Put your numbers along with your opinion please. Rank em all. If you don't think they will be around on primary day please note that also.
BTW according to the Schilling show, there will be an eighth candidate on Monday !
Another question. Who does another candidate help and hurt ? I have never spoken to this person but will try and get some information this week. No place is more interesting in this country this year than the fifth district of Virginia. Glad I moved here.
Campaign mangagers- quality and quantity.
Since McPadden lost his second campaign manager some have done some speculating. I think it is more useful to examine whet the real differences were and the quality of what is left for every campaign.
First it seems clear that Josh left because of a difference in beliefs. That is a very principled reason to leave a campaign. You have to go over McPadden's website carefully to see what he really believes and it is way out in the libertarian world. He is making pledges that are impossible to keep just to get endorsed. Joshua is a strong Christian minister and some of McPadden just would not work for him.
As for Ed Robb, one has only to look at financial reports and McPadden didn't pay Ed nor his prior consultant until December.
Now he has no manager but I have been told he is claiming a much stronger team of a half dozen or so are soon to join his team. Where is the money coming from ?
Current rating of his team. 7th
Verga has no real manager, just a part timer holding the title to give some idea that there is something there. Verga has been trying to hire for quite some time and no one has been willing to take the job. Cortes is a loose wire with few contacts and just part time. With Verga's money, he should be able to hire a pro but is paying people in DC instead.
Current rating of this non team. 6th
Ferrin has no manager and with his plan does not need one at this point. Hard to rank a no manager as stronger than having one but both McPadden and Verga have been hurt rather than helped by theirs.
Current rating of this team 5th
Morton is,depending on who talks, on her third or fourth manager. The current one is a nice young man with no experience and who lives across the district from her. His value set is the same as hers and he isn't harming her. Her lack of stability has hurt her image.
Current rating of the team 4th.
McKelvey has hired Brian O'connor, a step up from his prior manager who is still helping. Give him something for stability. O'connor has a long Fifth District history but can he transfer his friendships to McKelvey ? The next month will show whether this team goes up or down.
Current rating of this team 3rd
Boyd has very good out of state consultant but no hired in place manager. Great volunteers except whoever wrote last weeks press release after the PPP Poll. The first piece of literature was impressive but this campaign has been stalled ever since.
Rating of this team 2nd
Hurt has put together a team that dwarfs the rest. His campaign manger Sean Harrison just came off running a high profile House of Delegates campaign in NOVA and he seems to have lots of friends. Good people skills seen so far. Will have to see how he does over the long haul. Consultant LaCivita knows the district and has excelled for years. They also have a lady who was on the Victory staff last year. Impressive group. The team shows a lot about Hurt.
Rating on this team - 1st ++
First it seems clear that Josh left because of a difference in beliefs. That is a very principled reason to leave a campaign. You have to go over McPadden's website carefully to see what he really believes and it is way out in the libertarian world. He is making pledges that are impossible to keep just to get endorsed. Joshua is a strong Christian minister and some of McPadden just would not work for him.
As for Ed Robb, one has only to look at financial reports and McPadden didn't pay Ed nor his prior consultant until December.
Now he has no manager but I have been told he is claiming a much stronger team of a half dozen or so are soon to join his team. Where is the money coming from ?
Current rating of his team. 7th
Verga has no real manager, just a part timer holding the title to give some idea that there is something there. Verga has been trying to hire for quite some time and no one has been willing to take the job. Cortes is a loose wire with few contacts and just part time. With Verga's money, he should be able to hire a pro but is paying people in DC instead.
Current rating of this non team. 6th
Ferrin has no manager and with his plan does not need one at this point. Hard to rank a no manager as stronger than having one but both McPadden and Verga have been hurt rather than helped by theirs.
Current rating of this team 5th
Morton is,depending on who talks, on her third or fourth manager. The current one is a nice young man with no experience and who lives across the district from her. His value set is the same as hers and he isn't harming her. Her lack of stability has hurt her image.
Current rating of the team 4th.
McKelvey has hired Brian O'connor, a step up from his prior manager who is still helping. Give him something for stability. O'connor has a long Fifth District history but can he transfer his friendships to McKelvey ? The next month will show whether this team goes up or down.
Current rating of this team 3rd
Boyd has very good out of state consultant but no hired in place manager. Great volunteers except whoever wrote last weeks press release after the PPP Poll. The first piece of literature was impressive but this campaign has been stalled ever since.
Rating of this team 2nd
Hurt has put together a team that dwarfs the rest. His campaign manger Sean Harrison just came off running a high profile House of Delegates campaign in NOVA and he seems to have lots of friends. Good people skills seen so far. Will have to see how he does over the long haul. Consultant LaCivita knows the district and has excelled for years. They also have a lady who was on the Victory staff last year. Impressive group. The team shows a lot about Hurt.
Rating on this team - 1st ++
My Hokies do it again !
Thanks to a friend, I was able to see the game last night and boy was it worth the trip. Jeff Allen took over at the end and showed what it takes to be a great player. Let's see, thats a sweep in basketball, a win in football and a huge difference in football recruiting this year. Wahoos just have to get ready for more of the same in the future.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Looking at the PPP poll.
I want to go through the entire poll issued today and take a hard look at who are the winners and losers at this point. I think you have to look at the poll in light of who has been out in the district traveling and who has been spending how much money.
Biggest winner Virgil Goode. Strong name ID and strong polls. No money spent, travels a lot.
Second biggest winner Robert Hurt - good ID negatives match positives after being beaten up for some time now. Has been tied up for over a month. General Assembly time may be big asset for seeing lots of people in his district as they come to Richmond though.
Biggest surprise Ron Ferrin Though his numbers are low, they are the best for the money spent of anyone. Can he build on this ? Will have to raise money and get internet fire.
Biggest Loser Lawrence Verga After spending almost 50 K he is at 2%. He says he is the TEA Party candidate but there is a huge gap between the TEA party generic vote of 19% and his number. Why ? Verga has been throughout the district but clearly even his "Joe the Plumber" trip and his other travels have yielded little support. He has been the most vocal attackinhg Hurt and it hasn't gotten him much.
Can we stay around ? Jim McKelvey's numbers are as bad as Verga's 2%, He has spent a lot of money on consultants, like Verga and has the same 2%. He wants to be the TEA Party guy but that space is already taken. Has not really traveled the district outside of GOP meetings yet. McKelvey's web site still only has 15 counties/cities listed in the district.
On life support Mike Mcpadden has lost another campaign manager who was really helping him with TEA Parties and conservatives that Mike could never have reached. Can he now recover ? McPadden did a tour through the district some time ago and came home after three very rainy days with little press and worse attendance. He needs professional help and quickly.
Where is the grass roots ? Feda Morton has the biggest name supporters bit none of them live in the 5th and they only get her to 4% That equates to 16 people out of the 400 polled. She has traveled but gets no more support than Ferrin who was a total unknown before this. Her campaign seems to be depending on out of district advice and really has not taken hold. She was perhaps the smartest with her press release this week, totally ignoring the poll and saying come see me.
Stuck in the middle Ken Boyd Not viewed by TEA parties as theirs anywhere. Many in Albemarle say his School Board and Board of Supervisors records have many go along to get along votes with the liberals in the county. His 12% is good but way below his own polls. His fundraising was not what was expected. No full time manager in the field. Needs help. Dumbest press release of the week.
enough enough enough
Biggest winner Virgil Goode. Strong name ID and strong polls. No money spent, travels a lot.
Second biggest winner Robert Hurt - good ID negatives match positives after being beaten up for some time now. Has been tied up for over a month. General Assembly time may be big asset for seeing lots of people in his district as they come to Richmond though.
Biggest surprise Ron Ferrin Though his numbers are low, they are the best for the money spent of anyone. Can he build on this ? Will have to raise money and get internet fire.
Biggest Loser Lawrence Verga After spending almost 50 K he is at 2%. He says he is the TEA Party candidate but there is a huge gap between the TEA party generic vote of 19% and his number. Why ? Verga has been throughout the district but clearly even his "Joe the Plumber" trip and his other travels have yielded little support. He has been the most vocal attackinhg Hurt and it hasn't gotten him much.
Can we stay around ? Jim McKelvey's numbers are as bad as Verga's 2%, He has spent a lot of money on consultants, like Verga and has the same 2%. He wants to be the TEA Party guy but that space is already taken. Has not really traveled the district outside of GOP meetings yet. McKelvey's web site still only has 15 counties/cities listed in the district.
On life support Mike Mcpadden has lost another campaign manager who was really helping him with TEA Parties and conservatives that Mike could never have reached. Can he now recover ? McPadden did a tour through the district some time ago and came home after three very rainy days with little press and worse attendance. He needs professional help and quickly.
Where is the grass roots ? Feda Morton has the biggest name supporters bit none of them live in the 5th and they only get her to 4% That equates to 16 people out of the 400 polled. She has traveled but gets no more support than Ferrin who was a total unknown before this. Her campaign seems to be depending on out of district advice and really has not taken hold. She was perhaps the smartest with her press release this week, totally ignoring the poll and saying come see me.
Stuck in the middle Ken Boyd Not viewed by TEA parties as theirs anywhere. Many in Albemarle say his School Board and Board of Supervisors records have many go along to get along votes with the liberals in the county. His 12% is good but way below his own polls. His fundraising was not what was expected. No full time manager in the field. Needs help. Dumbest press release of the week.
enough enough enough
Friday, February 12, 2010
The most amazing spin of the day.
Ken Boyd's press release is without question the most amazing of the week , even more than Verga's.
Let's examine it.
Read the release and then our comments at the end.
Boyd-Hurt statistically tied among conservatives
Let's go through this wonderful spin piece.
Boyd keeps on talking about statistical wins. They aren't real.
Hurt has 20% of the conservative vote and Boyd has 13. How is that tied ? 52% oF conservatives are undecided. So if you throw undecideds out Hurt would lead that group 40-26.
? Boyd has broken away ?
Hurt has broken away from him, not just in this poll, but in fundraising (293 K to 50K) and every other measurable way including facebook friends (1171 to 127). Boyd is breaking away in what he is paying his consultant, supposedly 8K a month ++ and with only 20K on hand as of 12/31,he is in financial trouble now. He is, other than Verga, the only person to have sent out mail at this point and he sent out a very nice and expensive piece. Boyd's numbers should be much higher.
Hurt has a lead among liberals ?
Read the cross tabs. Paul Wright has and he is only mentioning part of the story. They only polled 2% liberals which works out to 8 people called of 400. So out of 400 Hurt got 3 votes and Boyd got 1. The best misleading spin in the whole release maybe. Talk about a statistical dead heat. One person switching from Hurt to Boyd and it would have been break even in liberals.
The December Boyd finaced poll was a push poll that never asked whether you would support Ken Boyd if you knew he had voted repeatedly for raises in school board budgets and to make you cut your grass when a county inspector told you to. What would Ken's numbers have been if people had been asked those push questions ?
Unify around Boyd ? I guess that is why the other candidates called for a sit down meeting and a conservative convention and in both cases leaving Boyd out ?
And trying to use Virgil's coming to a Franklin County event like it is an endorsement ? Virgil was recently at a McKelvey event there and is reportedly doing them for others as well.
Worst spin of the week- without question. Ken you are going to lose all credibility on any release if you keep this up. I would hope to hear that you had not seen and approved this before Paul Wright sent it out. If you did, you will match Tom Perriello as a spin doctor.
Let's examine it.
Read the release and then our comments at the end.
Boyd-Hurt statistically tied among conservatives
Presumptive front-runner falls to 22 percent, as his general election prospects look grim
Ken Boyd has broken away from the rest of the Republican field and is now on pace to pass presumed front-runner Robert Hurt for first place in Virginia's 5th District sooner than expected. Boyd is already in a statistical tie with Hurt among the conservative voters who make up most of the 5th district and GOP primary voters. Hurt continues to cling to a small, shrinking lead due to a 25% lead among liberals and 17% lead among moderates, according to a poll released by an independent polling firm that was rated as the 2nd most accurate pollster in the country by the Wall Street Journal on November 6, 2008.  "While we certainly always expected Ken Boyd to be the nominee on June 8, we have been pleasantly surprised at how quickly voters have come to support Ken," said campaign spokesman Paul Wright, after reviewing the new polling results released this morning. "As soon as voters learn that Senator Hurt supported the largest tax increase in Virginia's history while Ken Boyd used his lifetime of financial experience to help cut the Albemarle County budget by almost 8 percent last year, Ken Boyd wins this nomination by double digits. Obviously, voters are starting to find out even before we send out our first mass mailing or run our first ad." Boyd's December poll showed he had already taken the lead among the most active Republicans and conservatives and pulled within 23 to 10 percent among all possible primary voters. At that point, he had already pulled ahead to second place, with all other candidates in the low single digits. Further, the December poll showed that as soon as voters learned that Hurt supported the largest tax increase in Virginia's history while Boyd was able to cut bureaucratic spending, Boyd surged to a 43% to 27% lead to easily win the primary. "It was obvious that it would just be a matter of time before Ken Boyd passed Senator Hurt, but even we are surprised it is happening this fast," Wright said. "We are benefitting from the fact that 78% of the voters have rejected Washington trying to dictate a nominee that would have difficulties in the general election. We have a long way to go, but it is clear that most 5th District Republicans don't believe Robert Hurt can win in the fall with Democrats pounding on him for supporting billions of dollars in tax increases, and some are starting to believe that Ken Boyd has the best chance to beat Perriello in the fall." Boyd surges despite Hurt's DC-backing, big money Poll shows Hurt could get only 12% in general if nominated In December, one campaign went so far as to issue a press release questioning whether Boyd could already be as strong as his poll indicated. However, the first independent poll of the campaign by Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Boyd has gotten even stronger. The poll released this morning showed Boyd has already closed the gap to only 22% to 12%, a 3 point improvement in just over a month in which Hurt received strong support from many DC-based organizations that resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars being given to his campaign. Perhaps even more important, none of the other candidates have topped 4 percent yet, which offers the possibility that the majority of voters in the "anyone but Hurt" camp could unify around Boyd as their best chance to prevent Hurt from being the nominee and give Boyd a lopsided win. Yesterday, in the first day of a two-day release of it's results, PPP released results showing that Hurt would receive only 12% of the vote in the general election if his nomination led to Virgil Goode entering the race as an independent in response to a Hurt nomination. Goode polled as the most popular person in the district by a wide margin, with 58% having a favorable impression of him, and only 29% a negative impression, compared to 42%-46% for Perriello. Goode will be the special guest at a Ken Boyd fundraiser in Goode's hometown of Rocky Mount on Tuesday. ### |
Let's go through this wonderful spin piece.
Boyd keeps on talking about statistical wins. They aren't real.
Hurt has 20% of the conservative vote and Boyd has 13. How is that tied ? 52% oF conservatives are undecided. So if you throw undecideds out Hurt would lead that group 40-26.
? Boyd has broken away ?
Hurt has broken away from him, not just in this poll, but in fundraising (293 K to 50K) and every other measurable way including facebook friends (1171 to 127). Boyd is breaking away in what he is paying his consultant, supposedly 8K a month ++ and with only 20K on hand as of 12/31,he is in financial trouble now. He is, other than Verga, the only person to have sent out mail at this point and he sent out a very nice and expensive piece. Boyd's numbers should be much higher.
Hurt has a lead among liberals ?
Read the cross tabs. Paul Wright has and he is only mentioning part of the story. They only polled 2% liberals which works out to 8 people called of 400. So out of 400 Hurt got 3 votes and Boyd got 1. The best misleading spin in the whole release maybe. Talk about a statistical dead heat. One person switching from Hurt to Boyd and it would have been break even in liberals.
The December Boyd finaced poll was a push poll that never asked whether you would support Ken Boyd if you knew he had voted repeatedly for raises in school board budgets and to make you cut your grass when a county inspector told you to. What would Ken's numbers have been if people had been asked those push questions ?
Unify around Boyd ? I guess that is why the other candidates called for a sit down meeting and a conservative convention and in both cases leaving Boyd out ?
And trying to use Virgil's coming to a Franklin County event like it is an endorsement ? Virgil was recently at a McKelvey event there and is reportedly doing them for others as well.
Worst spin of the week- without question. Ken you are going to lose all credibility on any release if you keep this up. I would hope to hear that you had not seen and approved this before Paul Wright sent it out. If you did, you will match Tom Perriello as a spin doctor.
Stupid move of the week, Mr Verga's part time campaign manager's
In a release today, Verga's press manger sent out a release highlighting the "Lump Report" rankings of three TEA party leaders. Why would you draw attention to the totally miserable ranking of Mr. Verga on the PPP polls which rank him near the bottom. This is remarkable when considering he has spent the most money of any candidate as of the last filing, almost 45K. Talk about getting nothing for your money. If he has 211K left he won't get above 10 % in any primary vote.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
PPP Poll
I am going to do something no blogger is supposed to do. Public Policy Polling is out with their first poll of the 5th. Go look and let me know what you think ! Don't worry, I will give you my spin later.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_211.pdf
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_211.pdf
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
The sky is falling- According to Tim Boyer
The sky is falling. Tim Boyer, the same scrounge who was the 5th district chair for the buffoon Muldoon last year, losing the district and every county in it for Muldoon, is back at his attack mode again. He has picked out one donation out of the hundreds of reportable donations for his attack. It was from from a John Scofield. a lobbyist who recently donated to Robert Hurt and Tim put his usual trashy spin on it. Below, according to Opensecrets.org is Scofield's federal donation record. There are 14 donations to Republicans and 3 to Democrats. His father gave money to Oliver North and other good Republican causes. Anyone with any sense, and that leaves Tim out, knows that lobbying firms hire people from both parties so they can lobby both side of the aisle. Using Tim's logic. Hurts recent donation from Frank Atkinson, George Allen's Director of Policy who lead the fight for the great reforms during the Allen administration is tainted because L. F. Payne is a partner in the same firm. No Tim, you can throw all the mud you want to but this just won't stick.
This list won't fit so please go to opensecrets.org and look on the column to the far left and click on donor lookup. All you have to do then is to insert Scofield and scroll down when you get the results.
It will show you what is described above.
This list won't fit so please go to opensecrets.org and look on the column to the far left and click on donor lookup. All you have to do then is to insert Scofield and scroll down when you get the results.
It will show you what is described above.
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/CONSULTANT | 12/9/09 | $1,000 | Lewis, Jerry (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 10/16/07 | $1,000 | Every Republican is Crucial PAC (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/EXECUTIVE | 6/29/07 | $1,000 | McConnell, Mitch (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN AUSTIN,TX 78759 | RETIRED | 9/1/92 | $1,000 | Republican National Cmte |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 1/30/09 | $500 | Merkley, Jeff (D) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 5/19/09 | $500 | Norton, Eleanor Holmes (D) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 3/11/09 | $500 | Tedisco, Jim (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 6/24/09 | $500 | Vitter, David (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 9/30/09 | $500 | LaTourette, Steven C (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 3/31/09 | $500 | Burr, Richard (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 6/30/09 | $500 | Cantor, Eric (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 12/18/09 | $500 | Every Republican is Crucial PAC (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | THE PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPLE | 3/26/09 | $500 | Kilpatrick, Carolyn Cheeks (D) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20001 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 6/18/08 | $500 | Senate Majority Fund (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/PRINCIPAL | 5/23/08 | $500 | Camp, Dave (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESA GROUP/CONSULTANT | 11/4/08 | $500 | Smith, Gordon H (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN AUSTIN,TX 78759 | RETIRED | 11/2/94 | $394 | North, Oliver (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN AUSTIN,TX 78759 | RETIRED | 10/21/92 | $350 | Republican National Cmte |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN LAKE CHARLES,LA 70605 | BANK ONE LEXINGTON | 6/5/97 | $250 | Bank One Corp |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/CONSULTANT | 9/7/07 | $250 | Ogsbury, Jim (R) |
| SCOFIELD, JOHN WASHINGTON,DC 20003 | PODESTA GROUP/GOVT RELATIONS | 9/30/08 | $250 | Wolf, Frank R (R) |
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